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BANKING
China's macro-economy is slowing, but it is a very gradual process. During 2005, there were a number of signals - slower import growth, slower profitability growth in many sectors, slower growth of foreign direct investment, reports of overcapacity in a number of sectors, and a relatively tight credit environment - that suggested the 2004 peak in growth had passed. However, China's 2005 buoyant growth of 9.9% surprised most analysts and suggested, after three quarters of slower investment growth, that a mild revival in domestic demand was occurring. Increased investment in areas such as coalmines and other energy-related projects, as well as property, were apparently behind the stronger figures. Standard Chartered does not expect this mini-revival in investment to last long though since it believes that structural pressures will reassert themselves. Despite the fact that consumption growth was stronger, China's economy in 2005 was also much more reliant on the external sector, meaning it was vulnerable to a slowdown in the US in 2006. Standard Chartered predicted official real gross domestic product to grow by 9.2% in 2006. Key risks included the response of Chinese private firms to slower profit growth, tighter bank lending and the state of the US economy. Given the surprising weakness in recent data, the bank estimated a 2006 increase in the consumer price index of 1.5%. The bank continues to back its call that the yuan be allowed to appreciate by 2-3% a year against the US dollar. Common Cash Management Problems The Pyramid of Needs The 'cash trap' is perhaps the biggest challenge for many MNCs. Standard Chartered views the October 2004 Notice on Management of Foreign Currency Liquidity as the first step by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) to free up the cross-border movement of cash. More liberalisation in this area is expected. An Update on Clearing Infrastructure In the fourth quarter of 2005, PBOC started a pilot in Fuzhou and Tianjin of a low-value automated clearing house system called the Bulk Electronic Payment System (BEPS). Cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are scheduled to be included in early 2006 with PBOC formally launching the system in all cities by June 2006. In the first phase, PBOC has set favourable pricing for transactions via BEPS as compared with those for the existing CNAPS. The threshold for payment value is CNY20,000. Such a system will be ideal for low-value same-city payments and will enable direct debit to become another effective collection method. The 'big four' local banks - the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Bank of China, the China Construction Bank and the Agricultural Bank of China - have the largest networks in China, and each has invested heavily in developing its own internal clearing system. For intra-bank funds transfer, it takes 24 hours or less. Until the full coverage of CNAPS and BEPS is complete, the big four's intra-bank settlement systems will remain, running in parallel. Collection and Reconciliation With more companies using enterprise resource planning (ERP), accounts receivable reconciliation becomes an important objective. To determine the level for reconciliation - such as the ERP reference number, payer level or invoice level - a company needs to rely on information provided by its bank. Trends in Liquidity Management The entrustment loan was the first real instrument that allowed a company to share liquidity across business entities. A few banks in China have created more client-focused solutions by using the entrustment loan concept to create multi-party loans. This allows companies to more efficiently arrange entrustment loans between multiple entities. In the past two years, this arrangement has been further superseded by group cash concentration solutions that are not dissimilar to zero-balance or threshold pools in more mature, less regulated markets. In mid-2005, Standard Chartered set up a daily zero-balance pooling solution in partnership with a local bank where many of the transaction accounts remain with the local bank (Figure 3). Foreign currency liquidity management options have also improved following SAFE's October 2004 notice. Similar to the yuan regulation a few years earlier, the notice permits inter-company lending backed by entrustment loans. For group companies with multiple entities, one foreign bank and one local bank have been given SAFE approval to conduct pan-China foreign currency pooling. In October 2005, SAFE issued nine new measures for foreign currency liquidity management for MNCs registered in Shanghai. Under the new rules, MNCs are able to concentrate foreign currency on a daily basis through entrustment loans. The market in China is changing rapidly with the regulators allowing more opportunities for forward thinking. Companies and banks will be able to creatively structure effective liquidity management solutions. At the time of writing, it is understood that the regulators are about to abolish the need for entrustment loans for inter-company yuan lending. This will be an important breakthrough and a clear sign that China is sailing in the right direction to become a less strictly regulated market. Centralisation in China
In its most developed form, a SSC requires standardisation of processes, liquidity management and rationalisation, and almost always a degree of outsourcing of payments and collections to the partner banks, plus the establishment of a common ERP and management information system. As China follows up its commitment as a signatory to the World Trade Organisation, more of the barriers to establishing true SSCs are being lowered. Tax Strategies Planning minimises the cost of repairs afterwards and reduces the panic when tax issues arise. China offers many favourable tax policies to attract foreign investors, such as tax holidays, preferential rates and tax refunds for qualified investors. A comprehensive study and understanding of the local tax system is one of the critical success factors for foreign investors. A tax strategy for an investment in China may include the following considerations:
The complexity of China's tax rules means that, for a company to achieve its strategic goals, it should have a good tax team in place with sound knowledge and experience of handling issues and communicating effectively with the authorities. Copyright © ChinaForum 2007 |
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